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Today's Daily Samual


3/24/06 - Fri

Economic Analysis
. Gold - Flat to Bullish
. Oil - Flat to Bullish
. Stock Market - Bearish
. Foreign Currencies - Bullish
. US Dollar - Flat to Bearish
. Real Estate - Flat to Bearish

LA/ Orange County Real Estate - Flat to Bearish - 10-40% Downturn

 

4/16/05 - Sat

Economic situation analaysis:

. The stock market is down. I expect stocks to remain volatile, but I doubt it will take a major dive right now. I'm not sure when we can expect a recession to take place. I suppose it's whenever the stock market drops about 30-50%.

I expect the dollar to remain relatively weak to the Euro along w/ other Europeon currencies. It will drop another 10-15%, but not too much further from there. I do expect the US $ to drop about 30% to the Asian Currencies.

Gold should remain relatively strong. I don't expect it to go gangbusters. Perhaps because it's been disappointing in the past 2 years. But it wouldn't necessarily surprise me if it did.

I expect oil prices to remain volatile. I see it trading from about $50 a barrel to $60++ Oil stocks should continue to remain strong.

Expect the market to bounce back after this short term correction. Should represent a good buying opportunity in Oil, Airline, and the general index.

When will China explode? That's the million dollar question... When will they begin floating their currency? When will the intrinsic inefficiencies in this economy become exposed? When will we see a correction in their real estate market?

In that case, when will we see a correction in the local US real estate market!

I'd expect the next major market correction to take place in 2006 - 2009. We have a 3 year window when this is very likely to happen.


12/27/04 - Monday
Just saw the movie "Peggy Sue Got Married" (1986) over the holiday weekend.  We've all seen it before, but man, watching it again, I must say this is a very funny and well made movie.  Starring Kathleen Turner (from Body Heat) and Nicolas Cage.  (Jim Carrey plays a part in this as well).  Directed by Francis Ford Coppola.  I recommend that everyone go get a rental and watch it!

About an unhappy housewife who has serious 2nd thoughts and regrets about her life, gets a 2nd chance to change her destiny.  Ironically, she chooses the same path she did the first time.  Full of great humour and excellent acting.  I love the line.."I love you ya ya ya"... changed to, "I love you ooo ooo ooo.." Very funny!  Watch the movie and you'll see what I mean!  The movie is comedic, romantic and ultimately about love and foregiveness.  A classic!

Everyone's heard about the tsunami that hit SE Asia by now.  Wow!  Talk about catastrophes!  Can you imagine one of those hitting the California coastline or Atlantic Coastline? Utter devastation and billions in damages.

Goes to show you that you cannot control or predict mother nature.  When she wants to sneeze, there's nothing you can do.

Indonesia has apparently shifted 100Ft South East.  Unbelievable!  Some reports state that the earth is still "trembling" from this amazing quake.

I think we'll see more of this type of "natural" events occuring in the next decade to come.

I didn't know what to expect from the Markets today.  Perhaps a sell off in Asia, perhaps nothing.  There was a slight sell off overall, but nothing dramatic.  I continue to expect the market to continue it's way upward for the next month or two, and then flatten out.  We'll probably then see weakness to the downside.

Buying some foreign currencies may be a good idea.  Singapore dollars, Malaysian Ringits are two that I like.  China's going to have to revalue soon, and when they do, the rest of Asia will follow suit; we'll then see the Ringit and other "pegged" currencies movie upwards.

The dollar is going to weaken.  It's not a question of if, but when and how fast.   Given our foreign account deficits, the dollar has to weaken in order for things to balance out.  China, Asia and rest of countries that our lending us money won't be too happy about this, but either that, or they stop selling things to us.

It's a question of the 'lesser of 2 evils'.  Either the dollar drops, or Asia has to become less competetive.

Europe appears to be realing from their expensive currency.  They are just able to compete with the US and Asia.  Their strong currency makes it that much tougher.

Everyone seems to be expecting a housing bust or weakness sometime next year, which lends me to believe that it won't happen.  My guess is that something will happen later than sooner, and when it does, it's going to hurt.

Still looking for that inverted yield curve.  The 30 year mortgage rate is continueing to soften; great for new home buyers and people who wan to refinance.   Also great for anyone in the mortgage business.


I saw another movie this weekend that I found surprisngly well done.  "Antwone Fisher"  Made in 2002, starring Derek Luke and Denzel Washington.  Very well acted film.  I got to say, Denzel Washington makes good movies.  Besides 'Training Day', I've been thoroughly impressed by his choice of movies.  The guy knows how to act and pick good scripts.



12/20/04 - Tuesday
It's warm and sunny in Los Angeles.  It's about 74F and the Christmas rush seems to have been a let down.  Consumers aren't buying like the pundits had all expected.  Perhaps we're getting choked by the overwelming debt.  It appears that eveyrone is on a tight budget. 

The refinancing boom has likely petered, although 30yr mortgages have crept down in the past month.  They haven't dropped enough though to motivate the many to refinance.   I would guess that rates would have to drop by another 1/2 percentage point for people to get excited again.

Ever notice the annoying "talkers" at the bookstore lately?  Lately, perusing through magazines or trying to read a book at your local Barnes and Noble or Borders books has become a test of patience.  Cell phones going off, people conversing as though they were in their living room.

Don't they know how to put their phones on vibrate?  Have they forgotten how to whisper?  Sometimes I want to get right into their face and screem, "shut the @#$@# up!"


What's with the "students" who come to these establishments, lay out their laptop, books, and study material, and decide to make it their personal study room?   Are these homeless people?  Don't they have real "desks" to work from?  Can't they leave these tables open for guys like me who want to get some "free magazine" reading done with my token purchase of Cafe Latte?



12/20/04 - Monday

Economic Outlook for 2005
Business and Economic Outlook, Where to Put Your Money, Financial Advice, Stock Market Outlook, and Investment Options

I'm expecting the economy to muddle along for the next 12 months.  Nothing dramatic should happen unless there's another 9/11 or Iraq blow up.

Let's keep an eye on the yield curve.  As Mr. Greenspan continues raising interest rates and we see upward pressure on inflation, we may see an inverted yield curve.  When this happens, it will spell doom for the economy and a very likely recession in 2006.   Keep an eye on your investments when this happens as you may have about an 8month window to begin selling some of your holdings before the market plummets about 40%.


I'm expecting a slight pop in the stock market for 1Q 2005.  Bush is pushing for privatizing social security, if/when this happens, we'll see another bull market for a short period of time before the impending pop in the bubble.

The US Dollar may see a small pop on the upside and then should resume it's downward spiral.

China may revalue their Yuan sometime next year, and then the rest of the Asian countries should follow suit.  Japan is already allowing their currency to rise.


Table:  0 = Very Bearish   10 = Very Bullish  5-6 = Neutral

1Month

3Months

1Yr

Major Indicators:

US Dollar

6.00

5.00

4.00

1 Yr T-Bills

6.00

7.00

6.00

10 Yr Bonds

5.00

5.00

6.00

US Inflation

5.50

6.00

6.00

Gold/Silver

6.00

6.50

7.00

Oil

6.00

7.00

8.00

Commodities

6.00

7.00

6.00

Major Indices

S&P 500

5.50

5.00

3.50

Nasdaq

5.50

5.00

3.50

Asian Markets

6.00

6.00

3.50

Specific Sectors

Airlines

6.50

8.00

6.00

China Stocks

6.00

6.00

4.00

Internet Stocks

6.50

4.00

3.00

Houseing Developers

6.50

7.00

5.00

Mortgage Lenders

5.50

5.00

4.00





 




** Special thanks to my assistant Susie.

Samual Lee


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